This week was accentuated with some late-night and early morning dumps and pumps across the market. Let’s see if we can make something out of the bright green and red candle(light)s. It may be a pretty concise weekly report though. I still have room in my beta test program for those technical analysts and traders/investors out there who like messing with the charts. Details are in a link below the BTC/USDT Correction Strength Meter chart.
BTC/USDT ← chart link
Weekly market structure support ended up holding this past week, but so did resistance. This isn’t a strong indicator for the upcoming week, and prices ranging in the same zone between $42 - $47k seems par for the course.
Earlier in the week, I made a note commenting on the zone at 38k being the next stable support if 40.5k failed but before that could happen a daily close below 40.5 would be the signal for that to be in play. That daily close never came. The long-standing ascending trendline is still technically holding as support, in my opinion. I’d like to be bullish but this chart has plenty of resistance. The RSI is in line with price and slightly bending back down. Without increased buy volume I don’t have much faith that any rally will hold for long. I’d expect bullishness to be slowed from $46 up to $48k. This chart also supports the same thesis of ranging prices between $42k and $47. Fingers crossed for some random pumps.
Looking at my new Correction Strength Meter indicator, that I’m holding the beta test on (click here if interested), we see additional support for a ranging price thesis. The immediate-term on the top left shows that prices are setting up for a bearish correction just waiting for a signal with targets for the bearish downturn around $42k. The cyclic RSI script I share shows in the short-term in the top rich is in an overbought region and turning back down. This could signal a potential downtrend or static prices. The medium-term trend on the bottom right I highlighted targets that were indicated with a bearish correction from earlier in the month that hit this past week. The long-term picture on the bottom right shows the RSI still bending down so trend continuation is expected.
ETH-BTC ← chart link
There’s not much to say about ETH/BTC on the weekly chart. It did end positively and closed as a bullish hammer candle. I personally don’t like single hammer candles as a sign of reversal but there’s plenty of people who do, so go with however YOU feel. If this does push ETH up in value relative to BTC I would still expect resistance around the 0.0763 BTC. I don’t really see much to point me in one way or another here.
This chart however is showing some strength. The RSI has bent back above the bottom band, the latest bar is a bullish engulfing candle closing above the 0.068 BTC support and the 50-Day EMA. I could entertain arguments on a price rally up to the 0.074 - 0.076 BTC level this week. Ideally we’ll get another day over the ema and a test of it as support. That would be a great setup to see ETH increase in value over BTC.
Again another showcase of the Correction Strength meter and other indicators for some trades and analysis. The immediate-term picture on the top right is showing all the oscillators printing red suggesting a bearish correction down to the 0.07 BTC level. The RSI has also crossed below the bottom band supporting that potentiality. That price level is around the 50-Day EMA, perhaps this will be a test of prior resistance for support. The short-term picture on the top right is also showing some waning on the RSI, although it’s not printing any red oscillators. This would lead me to believe that it’s a temporary correction and the bullish trend is still supported by buyers. There’s also a target from a prior bullish trigger that hasn’t been hit just quite yet. The medium-term picture is the same as above, a bullish outlook. The long-term weekly picture doesn’t really have any indications with the meter at this moment in time.
ETH/USDT ← chart link
Another down week for ETH, and by a strict definition, I use technically NOT a hammer candle. The close is not within the top third of the whole range of the bar, so just a normal down bar. Losing a previous low close around $3200 isn’t spectacular. Also, with a down-trending RSI would lead me to believe we may end up testing the low of this wick in the coming week.
ETH has a slightly better picture vs USDT than BTC does which is something one would expect with a bullish ETH/BTC chart. The RSI is itching to cross above the bottom band which is a potential indication of a bullish trend. We see another bullish engulfing candle above horizontal support but compressed by the 50-Day EMA. Even if we do see a bullish push I don’t think it’d get much further than the resistance starting at $3375. I also expect the eventual push up to 3700 to be a tough resistance as well. Really this is a tough picture. I want to lean bullish but in the interest of protecting myself I’d wait for either a breach of the 50-Day EMA and a test for support after pulling back from $3400 OR wait for the failure of $2884 and watch for some bullish candle patterns around $2600 to $2700 to scoop up the dip for a quick long position.
Final Correction Strength Meter analysis for the post. Remember if you want access to this before it all goes live later in the year you can help me with the testing. The immediate-term picture (top left) is indicating a potential dip to around $3000 which would align with the cyclic RSI breaking the bottom band. The short-term picture (top right printed some green bars a bullish rally early last week that proceeded to hit its targets before retracing again. With the RSI starting to turn towards the top bands this supports the idea of a retracement. Bearish corrections printed on the medium-term picture (bottom left) hit all the dip targets this week during the correction on the 21st and the RSI is now moving back above the bottom band. There are still no bullish indications though so it’s always possible the dips aren’t all over for the next week or two. Looking at the long-term picture on the bottom right we see a lonely bearish correction target sub $1k. I don’t see that happening anytime soon, or far away to be honest, but that does indicate a long-term fair value price if the price does fall out big time. I’d have a buy order there just for fun. Can’t win if you don’t play.
Hope everyone has a great week. I had an idea to post last week about forced liquidity but the event I was referring to happened before I could even make it. I’ll rehash that this week just for fun so you’ll know what to expect next time that situation pops up. Check out the beta test program if you use tradingview and do some occasional trading. :-)
Next Sunday is the Q4 Market Cycle update. It’s gonna be a good one, but also it’s gonna be locked behind the paywall. If you aren’t a paid subscriber I’d suggest you join that side of things for the best stuff. Next week will also have another round of subscriber-selected altcoin charts with some TA. The last altcoin post yielded some great trades. Hope you choose to upgrade!