Sunday Synopsis #13: It's All Good
It's all good, wait a minute. I got joy in my spirit, I got money in my pocket, and some sеasoning for my chicken...
… Why am I stressing? Won't evеn address it. Leave my problems on my nightstand
Worries on my dresser. See now there's a bigger picture, but I already knew that, passing through the fire boy.
I know things look bad sometimes but try to keep a bigger perspective. You could probably be in a worse spot. Manage your risk and look at the big picture.
BTC/USDT ← chart link
We have a resistance test on the weekly chart. BTC managed to close 3 weeks ago above resistance, 2 weeks ago below that resistance, and this past week in the zone. With the RSI trending down I don’t have an entirely optimistic view going into the new week. Ultimately I think there will be support starting at $42k but likely there will be support beginning around the last 2 weekly chart lows.
I drew a zone within the zone last week. It was a more granular level I was watching for support bounces on intraday charts ($43k-$44k). The RSI daily is also trending down here so I’m expecting a test of the 50-Day EMA and if it fails a test of that lower support zone. One bright spot is an older ascending trendline that has been holding up for a while is right at the bottom of the support zone so I think that’s a good region to be looking for some intraday bullish candle pattern, but positions should be exited quickly at the nearest resistances since the chart is starting to show weakness and will be trading below the 50-Day EMA. One thing that has been worrying me as of late is the potential of a mass liquidation event as we get closer to $40-$42k. I’ll make a post about it tomorrow or Tuesday and make it free for everyone. Be careful in your longs right now.
ETH/BTC ← chart link
If we look at the weekly market structure chart we see that ETH has continued to decline in relation to BTC. Structure is still bullish as long as weekly closes stay above .065 BTC. The declining RSI is not a promising sight but there’s no indication on future price action there. I wouldn’t be considering adding to a long-term position, buying ETH with BTC until around .054 BTC.
I made some notes on the daily chart back on 9/1 noting the top range would be a likely area of mid-term profit-taking. That range held as resistance and now the price is testing the 50-Day EMA as support. With the RSI looking like it may cross below the band I’d be cautious on taking a long position here. Ideally, I’d watch a smaller timeframe (preferably the 2HR) and watch if the price gets into the tiny zone plotted above the horizontal support at .068401 BTC. If there’s a bullish candle pattern in that zone and the RSI is turning up and/or crossing above the bottom band I’d evaluate a mid-term long position looking to scale out at resistance around 0.074 BTC (the last high close pivot) and at 0.078 BTC (the bottom of the daily range zone).
ETH/USDT ← chart link
There’s not a lot of differences with ETH relative to USD from ETH relative the BTC, another down week. There’s a long way to the next weekly structure support but there’s support on smaller timeframes so I’m not thinking $2040 is in the cards just yet. This long-term timeframe is a waiting game. There are no actions that I would be taking at all. There’s no long-term position of value to buy at least until $2750, but I’d likely be waiting for around $2042.
The daily chart is looking a little weak. There was bearish divergence on the RSI indicating the potential for the dip on the 6th. The 50-Day EMA has held as support but $3375 has been weak support and with the RSI turning back down I wouldn’t be surprised to see $3375 and the EMA have some trading below it. I’d be looking for prices from 2884-$3000 to be the near-term floor for the support over the next week. There is the possibility for a weak floor around 3100 as well.
I’ll round this out with the new indicator I’m working on. In the altcoin showcase yesterday I showed potential uses as analysis and implementation for trading. It also works for longer timeframes and investing. When multiple oscillators indicate price corrections portions of long-term holds can be sold for profit to add to the cash pool to buy dips. The top left daily chart shows 2 times oscillators indicated the potential for bearish corrections and prices to buy back into positions (red arrow), followed by an indication for a bullish correction to straight out buy into a long-term position as the floor has been established and plotted potential prices to consider taking profits (green arrow). The weekly chart on the top right, for an even longer time horizon, is accurate when multiple oscillators align. We are a bit early for any monthly or quarterly indications as there’s not enough history yet. Something promising on the monthly chart is that it was previously plotting the potential for a long-term bearish correction but most of those oscillators’ projections have been invalidated, signifying a lower likelihood of long-term bearish prices.
I’ll be running a closed beta test of this indicator before I make it public. If you’d like to participate feel free to click the link below for information.
https://forms.gle/igrZxH4AR21k4j978
We are getting closer to the Q4 update of my cycle analysis. It’s gonna be a good one. It will also be locked behind the paid section so if you aren’t on that level of membership you should probably upgrade. I promise it’s worth it. I hope you have a great week.
@theprivacysmurf
Sunday Synopsis #13: It's All Good
exciting!!!